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Global change is altering the phenology and geographic ranges of flowering species, with potentially profound consequences for the timing and composition of floral resources and the seasonal structure of ecological communities. However, shifts in flowering phenology and species distributions have historically been studied in isolation due to disciplinary silos and limited data, leaving critical gaps in our understanding of their combined effects. To address this, we used millions of herbarium and occurrence records to model phenological and range shifts for 2,837 plant species in the United States across historical, recent, and projected climate and land cover conditions, enabling us to scale responses from species to communities, and from local to continental geographies. Our analysis reveals that communities are shifting toward earlier, longer flowering seasons in most biomes, with co-flowering species richness increasing at the edges of the season and declining at historical peaks—trends projected to intensify under ongoing environmental trends. Although these shifts operate concurrently, they affect different aspects of the flowering season: phenological changes primarily alter seasonality—its start, end, and duration—and co-flowering diversity at the edges of the season, while range shifts more strongly influence co-flowering species richness during historical seasonal peaks, and attributes tied to community composition, such as patterns of flowering synchrony among co-occurring species. Together, these results demonstrate that shifts in phenology and species ranges act synergistically to restructure the flowering seasons across North America, revealing wide variation in the pace and magnitude of change among biomes.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available April 8, 2026
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Sustainable cities depend on urban forests. City trees—pillars of urban forests—improve our health, clean the air, store CO2, and cool local temperatures. Comparatively less is known about city tree communities as ecosystems, particularly regarding spatial composition, species diversity, tree health, and the abundance of introduced species. Here, we assembled and standardized a new dataset ofN= 5,660,237 trees from 63 of the largest US cities with detailed information on location, health, species, and whether a species is introduced or naturally occurring (i.e., “native”). We further designed new tools to analyze spatial clustering and the abundance of introduced species. We show that trees significantly cluster by species in 98% of cities, potentially increasing pest vulnerability (even in species-diverse cities). Further, introduced species significantly homogenize tree communities across cities, while naturally occurring trees (i.e., “native” trees) comprise 0.51–87.4% (median = 45.6%) of city tree populations. Introduced species are more common in drier cities, and climate also shapes tree species diversity across urban forests. Parks have greater tree species diversity than urban settings. Compared to past work which focused on canopy cover and species richness, we show the importance of analyzing spatial composition and introduced species in urban ecosystems (and we develop new tools and datasets to do so). Future work could analyze city trees alongside sociodemographic variables or bird, insect, and plant diversity (e.g., from citizen-science initiatives). With these tools, we may evaluate existing city trees in new, nuanced ways and design future plantings to maximize resistance to pests and climate change. We depend on city trees.more » « less
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